Week 12
Skill vs. Luck. I am going to blow you(r mind).
This week, I decided to conduct a little study to help solve the timeless conflict of skill versus luck in fantasy football. The results were astonishing.
I have been quite butt-hurt lately regarding the large number in my points against column. Is my defense that bad? Was I unlucky? Jokes aside, I went 10-3 with the most points against in this league, I must’ve done something right. Right? I am hoping. So to try and prove that I did do at least a few things correctly in the past few months, I went out and compared my schedule with each team’s performance on a weekly basis. Basically, with some help from excel and CSE 101 at MSU, I calculated every team’s record if they would have faced my schedule instead of their own. Here’s how each owner’s team would have faired:
Max: (5-7-1)
Luke: (1-12)
Jacob: (2-11)
Kyle: (5-8)
Ryan: (6-7)
Patrick: (10-3)
Jordan: (4-9)
In most cases, you all couldn’t muster more than 5 or 6 wins facing my schedule. Some bottom-feeders may have done a few games better than now, while most were stripped of 3 or 4 wins, but nobody could surpass the six win mark, with PJ as an outlier. So really, unless you have PJ’s team, be grateful for an easier schedule. Please, if you think I did something wrong here or you do not agree with this research, please take time to let me know. Conduct your own research. I want to hear your comments. I want to know what you have to say. I will not be offended if you prove me wrong. I’m open-minded. If you want to see my excel spreadsheet just ask.
Digging a little deeper into this hypothetical situation, I put my team up against the schedule with least points against. I would have finished with a record of 11 wins and 2 losses, a minor improvement, but impressive. Not sure what this one-win improvement means. Perhaps one or two losses are expected each season, given that no team has surpassed 10 wins since this league began nearly four seasons ago.
Obviously, a bunch of other factors come into play, not just schedule faced and points against, but tell me where I got so lucky this year to end the season with 10 wins. Actually tell me. If any of you had faced my schedule, Sexual Misconduct excluded, you would not have had more than 6 wins. You do not know my story.
Does fantasy football require skill? Mostly luck? 100% luck? Tell me what you think. You know where to find me, tell me how I got lucky. I will turn off the sound of my league leading record to hear you out. Keenan Allen played less than 30 minutes of football this season, just so you remember. I won my last 5 games. In those games I played 6 different receivers. 3 of which I got “lucky” enough to pick up off waivers. Was choosing the correct 3 each week lucky? Literally say something to my face or text me. I want to know. I am on a journey to find the answer to this question. You will be helping me, not hurting me. Looking forward to hearing from you.
Thanks,
Kev
Skill vs. Luck. I am going to blow you(r mind).
This week, I decided to conduct a little study to help solve the timeless conflict of skill versus luck in fantasy football. The results were astonishing.
I have been quite butt-hurt lately regarding the large number in my points against column. Is my defense that bad? Was I unlucky? Jokes aside, I went 10-3 with the most points against in this league, I must’ve done something right. Right? I am hoping. So to try and prove that I did do at least a few things correctly in the past few months, I went out and compared my schedule with each team’s performance on a weekly basis. Basically, with some help from excel and CSE 101 at MSU, I calculated every team’s record if they would have faced my schedule instead of their own. Here’s how each owner’s team would have faired:
Max: (5-7-1)
Luke: (1-12)
Jacob: (2-11)
Kyle: (5-8)
Ryan: (6-7)
Patrick: (10-3)
Jordan: (4-9)
In most cases, you all couldn’t muster more than 5 or 6 wins facing my schedule. Some bottom-feeders may have done a few games better than now, while most were stripped of 3 or 4 wins, but nobody could surpass the six win mark, with PJ as an outlier. So really, unless you have PJ’s team, be grateful for an easier schedule. Please, if you think I did something wrong here or you do not agree with this research, please take time to let me know. Conduct your own research. I want to hear your comments. I want to know what you have to say. I will not be offended if you prove me wrong. I’m open-minded. If you want to see my excel spreadsheet just ask.
Digging a little deeper into this hypothetical situation, I put my team up against the schedule with least points against. I would have finished with a record of 11 wins and 2 losses, a minor improvement, but impressive. Not sure what this one-win improvement means. Perhaps one or two losses are expected each season, given that no team has surpassed 10 wins since this league began nearly four seasons ago.
Obviously, a bunch of other factors come into play, not just schedule faced and points against, but tell me where I got so lucky this year to end the season with 10 wins. Actually tell me. If any of you had faced my schedule, Sexual Misconduct excluded, you would not have had more than 6 wins. You do not know my story.
Does fantasy football require skill? Mostly luck? 100% luck? Tell me what you think. You know where to find me, tell me how I got lucky. I will turn off the sound of my league leading record to hear you out. Keenan Allen played less than 30 minutes of football this season, just so you remember. I won my last 5 games. In those games I played 6 different receivers. 3 of which I got “lucky” enough to pick up off waivers. Was choosing the correct 3 each week lucky? Literally say something to my face or text me. I want to know. I am on a journey to find the answer to this question. You will be helping me, not hurting me. Looking forward to hearing from you.
Thanks,
Kev